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Why Running Ads is Exactly Like Gambling (and How to Stack the Odds)

Author

Areeb Mirza
June 04, 2025

Most businesses lose money running ads. Why?

Because advertising is exactly like gambling, and most businesses gamble the wrong way.

Jeremy Haynes explained this perfectly,

Imagine walking into a casino with $50, playing blackjack, losing a few hands, and changing your strategy after every single loss.

That's exactly how most businesses run ads. Spend too little, tweak constantly, and lose big.

Facebook, Instagram, Google, they always have the advantage until you spend enough to beat them.

Spend less than $100/day ($3,000/month)? You're playing slots. Pure chance.

Real example:

If someone is spending $50/day got one booked call every week. Cost per call: $300. They wasted days tweaking ads, bad decisions based on no data.

Double that to $100/day, results twice as fast. Double again to $200/day? Data every day and a half.

More data = smarter decisions = better results.

Ever wonder how Amazon gets instant test results? Massive traffic. Small budgets take months for the same insights Amazon gets in an hour.

Timing matters too. Q4 (Oct-Dec) a "Black Swan event." 70% of annual ad spend happens here, worst time ever.

January-September? Better odds, lower costs, less competition.

Be a professional gambler, not an amateur:

  • Set an ad budget you can afford to lose while learning.

  • Learn the platforms first.

  • Wait for ideal conditions.

  • Never gamble emotionally.

Stop using the "Boost Post" button. Jeremy puts it bluntly: "That button was invented to steal money from people who don't know how to do ads."

Use Ads Manager, your actual control panel.

Before running ads, ask:

  • Can I afford to lose $3,000 while learning?

  • Do I have patience for results?

  • Do I actually know what I'm doing?

  • Is this the right timing?

If not, don’t gamble yet. Build organically, save money, educate yourself first.

Ads aren't risky if you're prepared. The house always beats amateurs—but if you control budget, timing, and strategy, you flip the odds in your favor.

(Concept credit: Jeremy Haynes)

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